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solar account for 56% of global electricity generation by previous years, based purely on cost dynamics. What this
mid-century and together with batteries take 80% of the year’s study highlights is the tremendous opportunity
$15.1 trillion invested in new power capacity over the for low-carbon power to help decarbonize transport,
next 30 years, according to the analysis. An additional buildings and industry-both through direct electrification
$14 trillion is invested in the grid to 2050. and via green hydrogen.”

Coal-fired power peaks in China in 2027 and India in NEO 2020 sees total oil demand peaking in 2035 and
2030, collapsing to 12% of global electricity generation then falling 0.7% year-on-year to return to 2018 levels
in 2050. In contrast, gas is the only fossil fuel to keep in 2050. Electric vehicles are projected to reach upfront
growing throughout the outlook, up 0.5% year-on-year price parity with internal combustion vehicles in the years
to 2050, growing 33% in buildings and 23% in industry leading up to the mid-2020s. After that their adoption
where there are few economic low-carbon substitutes. accelerates, eating more and more into the oil demand
growth that otherwise comes from aviation, shipping and
Yet, despite the progress of the energy transition, and the petrochemicals.
decrease in energy demand brought by COVID-19, BNEF
still sees energy sector emissions putting the world on Ultimately, energy use in buildings, industry and certain
course for a 3.3 degrees Celsius temperature increase by parts of the transport sector, such as aviation and
2100. shipping, have few cost-competitive low-carbon options,
and so remain heavily reliant on gas and oil products.
Jon Moore, CEO of BNEF commented: “The next ten
years will be crucial for the energy transition. There are Matthias Kimmel, senior analyst at BNEF and co-author
three key things that we will need to see: accelerated of the report, commented: “To stay well below two
deployment of wind and PV; faster consumer uptake degrees of global temperature rise, we would need to
in electric vehicles, small-scale renewables, and low- reduce emissions by 6% every year starting now, and
carbon heating technology, such as heat pumps; and to limit the warming to 1.5 degrees C, emissions would
scaled-up development and deployment of zero-carbon have to fall by 10% per year.”
fuels.”

Whereas NEO previously focused on the electricity
sector, this year’s report includes detailed chapters on
industry, buildings and transport to give a full-coverage,
economics-led view of the energy economy to 2050.
The report also features a Climate Scenario investigating
a clean electricity and hydrogen pathway to holding
temperatures to well below 2 degrees.

Seb Henbest, chief economist at BNEF and lead author of
NEO 2020, said: “Our projections for the power system
have become even more bullish for renewables than in